- FTX unlocked $21.5 million worth of Solana on 11 April 2025.
- The bankrupt exchange which is in the process of repaying customers, will likely sell the crypto.
- Solana remains untouched by the selling, on the contrary, it was up 7% at press time.
- FTX’s total holdings on the Solana blockchain stand at $398 million as per Arkham Intelligence.
The FTX Bankruptcy Estate (which includes Alameda Research) has unstaked $21.5 million worth of Solana. The amount has been unlocked possibly for selling. The bankrupt exchange (FTX) and its sister concern (Alameda), have almost come out of their bankruptcy and have paid most of their retail customers (claims below $50k).
The exchange is now in the process of paying its large customers ($50k+ claims), post which it will have to pay various agencies like the Department of Justice, the SEC, and the IRS.
The unstaking of 186,326.18 SOL is not enough to put the markets in a tight spot but is enough to initiate an avalanche effect (snowstorm) on Solana’s price.
Solana’s Recent Price History
Solana has seen a steep slide from $294 on Jan 19, 2025, to $96 on April 9, 2025. This steep slide was caused by the lack of liquidity in the crypto markets and hawkish guidance by the US Fed after its Jan 28-29 meeting.
Further, the end of the Memecoin Supercycle also impacted Solana’s on-chain fee revenue, leading to a further loss.
At press time, Solana was trading at $120, 7% above its bull market support level of $114. Below this support level, Solana could crash down to $100. The longer Solana holds to this support level, it gets more “courage” to make a recovery rally above $125.
After the $125 resistance, Solana could easily cross $140 and $170. We expect these to happen by the next FOMC meeting on May 6-7.
Why FTX’s Sale is Unlikely to Impact Solana?
Insignificant Amount
The possible sale of 186k SOL by the FTX estate is unlikely to impact Solana’s price due to the sheer demand for it in the current market. At press time, Solana’s last 24-hour volume was at $4.3 billion, way higher than the sale value of FTX.
Expected Pre-Launch Demand from Solana ETFs
Further, the impending approval of Solana ETFs is also likely to absorb the impact of any upcoming sell-off. We have witnessed ETF issuers buying up a certain amount of crypto before listing their ETFs.
For example, when the IBIT Bitcoin ETF was about to be launched in Jan 2024, BlackRock, the ETF issuer bought nearly $2 billion worth of Bitcoins from the open market.
In the case of Solana ETFs, which are possibly due for approval in May 2025, might create a similar demand for SOL.
No Avalanche Effect
Many of us were previously concerned with the possibility that FTX unlocks will possibly trigger a massive sell-off in crypto markets, especially in SOL. However, now that the markets are at least 20% up from previous levels, they are unlikely to trigger any such condition.
Insignificant SOL Holdings
Even if FTX decides to withdraw all of its crypto on the Solana blockchain, convert them back to SOL, and sell them off, it would still be able to sell only $400 million worth of SOL at current valuations.
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